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What to Watch For

Michael Fuchs discusses what to watch for in the South China Sea arbitration case.

With a ruling imminent in the arbitration case initiated by the Philippines against China over claims in the South China Sea, officials around Asia are bracing for the results, while analysts are busy handicapping the potential fallout.

As I wait for the verdict, I prefer to abide by Yogi Berra’s wise dictum: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Southeast Asia seems topsy-turvy at the moment—there’s a new and unpredictable president in the Philippines, and the usually domestic policy focused Indonesian president is thumping his chest (metaphorically, of course) on a warship in the South China Sea. For these reasons, I’m going to steer clear from making bold predictions or grand statements about how the arbitration case will determine the course of history in Asia.

The above excerpt was originally published in The Cipher Brief. Click here to view the full article.

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Michael Fuchs

Senior Fellow