From: Center for American Progress [progress@americanprogress.org]
Sent: Wednesday, January 09, 2008 1:34 PM
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Subject: National Security Policy Weekly
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This Week
  • Our Pakistan Problem, Brian Katulis and Caroline Wadhams
  • Steps in the Right Direction, Middle East Progress
  • The Cost  of 10 Years in Iraq, Lawrence Korb and Rand Beers
  • Spliced Video and the Hormuz Incident, Joseph Cirincione
  • Iraq's Four Ticking Time Bombs, Brian Katulis and Peter Juul
  • Military Reform: A Reference Handbook, Lawrence J. Korb and Winslow T. Wheeler
  • Our Ally in Islamabad, Brian Katulis
  • Can a Dictator Oversee an Election? Brian Katulis
Expert Commentary
  • Hyperinflating the Threat: Hormuz, Joseph Cirincione
  • Bush's Middle East Efforts, P.J. Crowley
  • U.S.-Pakistan Relations, Brian Katulis
  • Iranian Naval Vessels in Hormuz, Joseph Cirincione
This Week

Brian Katulis and Caroline Wadhams, "Our Pakistan Problem: Turmoil Requires a Shift in U.S. Policy," Center for American Progress, January 11, 2008
A suicide bombing that claimed nearly two dozen lives earlier this week in Pakistan’s second largest city, Lahore, is part of a growing trend of violence that claimed thousands of lives in the past year, including former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. In the wake of this growing violence, the United States and other countries should resist the impulse to offer unconditional support to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, who has portrayed himself as a last bastion against the terrorists.

Click here to read the full article.

Moran Banai, "Steps in the Right Direction," Middle East Bulletin, January 14, 2008
President George W. Bush’s words in Jerusalem and Ramallah suggested that he at long last is beginning to connect the dots between and among the challenges facing the region and the United States.
The first three days of his visit revealed a much more pragmatic president than in previous years of his presidency. Bush spoke about the tough road ahead and the difficult choices that must be made by leaders to move forward on resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. He left the door open for future direct engagement, announcing that he would be returning to Israel in May. His administration seems focused at last on rebuilding the tattered framework of international support necessary to advance the peace process.

Click here to read the full article.

Lawrence Korb and Rand Beers, "The Cost of the Next 10 Years in Iraq," Center for American Progress Press Call, January 15, 2008
The Iraqi defense minister last night indicated that U.S. forces would need to assist Iraqi security forces in defending Iraq’s borders from external threats until at least 2018 or 2020. This news comes as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice made a surprise trip to Baghdad to congratulate officials on de-Baathification legislation—legislation that is subject to varying interpretations and was passed with barely half the parliament present.

Both Gen. David Petraeus and President Bush have indicated a willingness to keep American troops in Iraq for at least 10 years without regard to the costs in both human lives and dollars and to our overall national security. The Center for American Progress calculated cost projections for a 10-year troop presence in Iraq last September.

Click here to listen to the press conference.

Joseph Cirincione, "Tangled Tapes: Spliced Video Gives False View of Hormuz Incident," Center for American Progress, January 11, 2008

They say that if you have only heard one side of a divorce case, you have no idea what actually happened. The same is true of international disputes. The tape released by the Pentagon on Monday of an encounter between five Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrol boats and three American warships in the Straits of Hormuz appears to have given a highly misleading impression of the seriousness of the incident.

Click here to read the full report.


President Bush this week marks the first anniversary of his speech announcing his 2007 escalation of U.S. forces to Iraq by traveling to the Middle East in an effort to salvage the damage done to the region by his policies over the past seven years. Iraq will dominate the diplomatic discussions even though the Arab-Israeli conflict and containing Iran’s influence in the region are the focus of the president’s trip. And here at home, the public continues to debate whether the decline from record levels of violence in Iraq over the past three months has strengthened or weakened U.S. national security.

Click here to read the full article.

Lawrence J. Korb and Winslow T. Wheeler, Military Reform: A Reference Handbook, Prager Security International, January 16, 2008
This volume will help the reader understand fundamental strengths and weaknesses in America's military forces, thereby leading to a comprehension of what genuine military reform is, and is not, and what remains to be done. Ideas will be presented to compare genuine reform to cosmetic dabbling, which fundamentally improves nothing and which sometimes arrives as ill-conceived fads that promise only to burden US combat forces to the point of mental and physical immobility.

Click here to read the full article.

Brian Katulis, "Our Ally in Islamabad," Los Angeles Times Debate, January 14, 2008
Dealing with global terrorist networks sometimes requires our government's close coordination with the military, intelligence and law enforcement agencies of regimes led by autocrats or dictators. Because unilateral cruise missile strikes and conventional military tactics are rarely effective in addressing terrorist threats, the United States must partner with other countries — and at times our partners are governments dominated by authoritarian rulers and lacking strong institutions.

Click here to read the full article.

Brian Katulis, "Can a Dictator Oversee an Election?" Los Angeles Times Debate, January 15, 2008
Most Pakistanis doubt that free and fair elections can be held with President Pervez Musharraf at the helm. He has squandered his credibility over the last year, dismissing the country's Supreme Court chief justice last March, imposing emergency rule in November and then mishandling the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. (The Pakistani Interior Ministry initially claimed that Bhutto died from a head fracture despite video footage that indicates she was likely killed by a bullet.) If Musharraf further postpones the February election, most Pakistanis will believe he has done so to prolong his own grip on power.

Click here to read the full article.

Expert Commentary

AP- Joseph Cirincione discusses the Bush administration's response to the Hormuz Incident.  "We have to take a step back and make sure we don't hyperinflate these threats, to prevent a shooting war that nobody really wants."

PBS- Lawrence Korb assesses the impact of recent American troop offenses in Iraq.  "Well, I think this is more of the same, and it's disconnected from the ultimate goal. When you use military force, it has a political objective. The objective of the surge and these increasing military operations was to give the Iraqi national government the breathing space to make the political compromises. If anything, they've gone backward in the last year."

Reuters -  Lawrence Korb talks about U.S. Defense Secretary Gates' recent recommendation to send additional troops into Afghanistan to reinforce NATO. "It's a step in the right direction because we have not had enough troops in Afghanistan. But does it bode well for the alliance? No. The way this was handled has made it more difficult to get NATO to do what it needs to do," Korb said.

CNN - Joseph Cirincione analyzes the recent incident in the Strait of Hormuz.  “Clearly that was not a commonplace occurrence to bring those however small patrol boats close to warships, but it wasn’t at all clear that that threat was real, that that might have been some prankster who made that comment from any of the radios from anywhere in the area, that the U.S. Navy, then sliced that into the tape."

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Event Resources

The Next American Century: How the US Can Thrive as Others Rise
January 18, 2008

In their new book, The Next American Century, Nina Hachigian and Mona Sutphen show that the "pivotal powers" - China, Europe, India, Japan, and Russia - seek greater influence, but each has an enormous stake in the world economy and a keen desire to thwart common threats. India is a key ally in the struggle against terrorism. China's help is essential to containing pandemic disease. Russia is leading an effort to keep nuclear devices out of terrorists' hands. Japan and Europe are critical partners in tackling climate change. None of these countries is a direct military or ideological challenger. In fact, their gains largely help, rather than hurt, America's continuing prosperity, growth, and to some extent, even its values. Will we have conflicts with these powers? Definitely. Some will be serious. But, by and large, they want what we want: a stable world and better lives for their citizens. We live in an era of opportunity, not of loss.

Featuring the two authors:
Nina Hachigian,
Senior Vice President at the Center for American Progress, Visiting Scholar of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University
Mona Sutphen, Managing Director at Stonebridge International LLC

Moderated by:
David Sanger, Chief Washington Correspondent, New York Times

Click here for more information.

Military Reform: A Reference Handbook
January 16, 2008

Just published, Military Reform: A Reference Handbook, examines the successes and failures of the recent military reform movement in Congress and the Pentagon. The book presents the reader with a history of the various attempts to reform the American armed forces - from both internal and external sources - from the American Revolution to the present day. The authors identify the serious yet poorly addressed challenges facing America's defenses today, and focus on both the genuine and cosmetic efforts taken to remedy the many remaining critical problems. They conclude with lessons for how to reform our armed forces more effectively than the ineffectual - and sometimes counterproductive - efforts that have been attempted in recent years.

Featuring the authors:
Lawrence J. Korb, 
Senior Fellow, Center for American Progress and Senior Advisor to the Center for Defense Information
Winslow T. Wheeler, Director of the Straus Military Reform Project at the Center for Defense Information

Discussion Moderated by:
Bruce G. Blair, President, World Security Institute

Click here for more information.

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