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This Week
  • Limits of an All-Volunteer Army, Lawrence Korb
  • Cassandra’s Conundrum, Joseph Cirincione
  • Have We Turned a Corner in Iraq?, Brian Katulis
  • Stay or Go in Iraq? Brian Katulis
  • Nicolas Sarkozy and America, Spencer Boyer
  • Weaknesses in Rail Security, P.J. Crowley
  • An All-Sudan Solution, Roger Winter and John Prendergast
  • Guard Deployments, Lawrence Korb and Sean E. Duggan
  • Veteran Healthcare By the Numbers, CAP Article
Expert Commentary
  • Iran and the Costs of Military Strike, Lawrence Korb
  • Political Transition in Iraq, Brian Katulis
  • Bush and Peace in the Middle East, P.J. Crowley
  • Afghanistan: The Forgotten Front, Caroline Wadhams
  • Musharaff and Next Steps in Pakistan, P.J. Crowley

This Week

Lawrence Korb, "Broken Contract: The Limits of an All-Volunteer Army," American Security Project Article, November 7, 2007
One of the lessons of Iraq is that our nation’s All-Volunteer Army (AVA) has suffered significant long-term damage waging a long war it was not designed to fight.

When the Nixon administration ended the draft and switched to the All-Volunteer Force (AVF) in 1973, the service most affected was the Army. For all practical purposes, in the period of conscription that lasted from 1948 to 1973, the Army was the only service that had to rely on the draft to fulfill its manpower needs. (The Marines had to draft small numbers in the waning years of Vietnam and the Navy took in conscripts briefly in the mid 1950s.)

Click here to read the full report.

Joseph Cirincione, "Cassandra’s Conundrum" The National Interest Commentary, November 12, 2007
The dangers to our national security are very often hyped, and this alarmism produces undesirable consequences. And it is not just venal politicians and ideologues who participate in this threat exaggeration, but otherwise well-intentioned reporters and, yes, experts. This was pointed out to me not by a journalist, but by a man who pretends to be a journalist: Jon Stewart. Interviewing me on his Daily Show shortly after the hyped-up scare of Jose Padilla’s alleged “dirty bomb” plot in 2002, he asked about my role in the media coverage. “For a guy like you”, he said, “is this like when you see the weatherman and a hurricane is coming, and the weatherman never really gets to be at the top of the news, but in a hurricane, he is. And he’s got his big rain slicker on and saying, ‘It’s a devastating event!’”

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Brian Katulis "Have We Turned a Corner in Iraq?" Los Angeles Times Debate, November 12, 2007
No one can dispute that the numbers of deaths of both Iraqi civilians and American soldiers are down from their highest level. Nevertheless, overall levels of violence remain dangerously high — 2007 is the deadliest year for our troops since President Bush began this unnecessary war of choice in 2003.

These declines may simply be the dust settling from the latest phase in Iraq's struggles for power. As the most recent National Intelligence Estimate noted, declines in violence — particularly in Baghdad — are in large part due to population displacements. In other words, sectarian cleansing continued even while U.S. troop numbers reached their highest levels since the invasion. Independent refugee organizations like the International Organization for Migration and the Iraqi Red Crescent Society report that the number of Iraqis displaced by the conflict doubled since the start of the surge, adding to millions already pushed out of their homes from 2003 to 2006.

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Brian Katulis, "Stay or Go in Iraq?" Los Angeles Times Debate, November 13, 2007
By now, it is clear that President Bush's surge strategy has failed to meet its fundamental objective: that Iraq's leaders will make compromises to advance the country's deadlocked political transition. Iraq's leaders remain stuck in the Green Zone debating some of the same issues they debated in 2004 and 2005. While the United States maintains its open-ended troop presence in Iraq, Iraq's leaders have little incentive to make the power-sharing agreements necessary to stabilize the country.

The Bush administration's strategy fosters a dangerous culture of dependency among a number of Iraq's leaders, propping up a dysfunctional and corrupt Iraqi national government without fundamentally altering the strategic calculations of Iraq's leadership to lead to a peaceful resolution of Iraq's struggle for power.

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Spencer Boyer, "Sarkozy and America," Huffington Post Article, November 8, 2007
French President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Washington this week showcased the new and improved Franco-American relationship, which began with Sarkozy's election in May. While Sarkozy has already stirred things up in France through his efforts to jumpstart a sluggish economy, scrap outdated labor practices, and restrict immigration, he has also challenged the status quo by making strong Franco-American relations a top priority again. Gone are the icy stares that characterized the relationship during the lead up to war in Iraq, with Sarkozy telling an enthusiastic joint session of Congress on Wednesday that "America can count on France" again. What's driving this new found friendship?

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P.J. Crowley, "Derailed Train Exposes Weaknesses in Rail Security," CAP Article, November 13, 2007
Last week’s CSX freight derailment in Washington, D.C. offers dramatic evidence of why the Bush administration’s existing approach to rail and chemical security is inadequate. The consequence of this runaway train is a serious but manageable environmental challenge, but it is a grim reminder that we have yet to adequately address one of the nation’s most serious homeland security vulnerabilities.

According to news reports, personnel moving cars around CSX’s Benning Yard complex failed to properly set a brake, causing a freight train loaded with coal to wander across an aging and inactive bridge that spans the Anacostia River. The bridge gave way and several rail cars plunged into the water. The rail yard sits within a couple of miles of the U.S. Capitol, a new baseball stadium, and other critical infrastructure.

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Roger Winter and John Prendergast, "An All-Sudan Solution: Linking Darfur and the South," ENOUGH Report, November 14, 2007
The stakes in Sudan in terms of protecting human life may have no equal throughout the world today. As Darfur continues to churn and burn, the 2005 peace deal that ended a far deadlier war in Southern Sudan is at risk and in danger of eventual collapse. If it unravels, there will be no chance for peace in Darfur, and if Darfur continues to deteriorate, the likelihood increases dramatically of a return to what was—for 20 years—a far more destructive war in the South.

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Lawrence Korb and Sean E. Duggan, "Guard Deployments Unsustainable," The Seattle Times article, November 14, 2007
This nation's Army was never intended to fight a long ground war. But, since October 2001, the Army has been waging counterinsurgency campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan with some 200,000 troops constantly deployed. This raises the question of whether the Army would be able to handle another operation, for example, in Iran.

In his first news conference since taking over as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen claimed that despite the active Army's massive involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States still has the resources to undertake contingency operations like an attack on Iran, should that become necessary. "There is more than enough reserve to respond [militarily] if that, in fact, is what the national leadership wanted to do," Mullen noted.

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"Veteran Health Care by the Numbers," CAP Report, November 9, 2007>
Veterans returning from Iraq and Afghanistan should have access to some of the best health care, facilities, and doctors that this country has to offer. But too often they face long waits and inadequate care. Veterans returning to the United States today suffer high rates of Traumatic Brain Injuries, Post-traumatic Stress Disorder, and other mental health afflictions, and many return with debilitating injuries or require amputation.

The transition from the Department of Defense health system into the Veterans Administration system can be difficult. There is a long backlog of claims in the VA, and it can take months for veterans to receive needed treatment and compensation. The problems discovered earlier this year at Walter Reed Medical Center indicate a need to fix a system whose infrastructure is outdated and ill-equipped for the veterans of modern warfare.

Click here to read the full article.

Expert Commentary

Associated Press - Lawrence Korb discusses the costs of a possible military strike against Iran and cautions against such an action.  "The cost (of a military strike) would far outweigh the benefits. We learned during the Cold War that sometimes patience is the best way to go."

Outside the Beltway - Brian Katulis analyzes recent "successes" in Iraq.  “When you consider that Iraqi leaders are discussing the same issues today that they were fighting about in 2004, it’s hard to see that the surge led to any forward political movement. While the numbers do seem to have come down on the violence, unfortunately the wheels have come off on the Iraqi political transition."

Washington Post - P.J. Crowley talks about the prospect of President Bush brokering a peace deal in the Middle East. Both Olmert and Abbas are weak at home and the unpopular Bush has invested much of his presidency in Iraq. He is viewed with deep mistrust in the Middle East. "Can three weak leaders produce an enduring peace agreement? The odds are that they will not be able to do it," said Crowley.

Washington Journal (C-SPAN) - Caroline Wadhams assesses U.S. strategy and progress in Afghanistan. "The situation is somewhat grim.  The security has deteriorated dramatically in Afghanistan since about 2005.  2007 is the deadliest year in record since the U.S. led invasion in 2001."

Hardball (MSNBC) - P.J. Crowley looks at the next steps the United States should take in Pakistan. "I think Musharaff has crossed a line here. I think quietly, we should be talking with the Pakistani military about engineering a soft landing and having Musharaff stepping aside entirely and clear the way for new leadership in Pakistan."




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Event Resources

Grace is Gone
November 12, 2007
7:30pm - 10:00pm

There was a time when Stanley Phillips (John Cusack) could see his entire life clearly. He dreamed of patriotic service and was destined for a military career. He came close to that dream until it was cut short simply because of his poor eyesight. Now he's serving customers at a home supply store while his Sergeant wife is fighting in Iraq.

Equally as awkward at home as he is at work, he's raising Heidi, their twelve-year-old daughter and her 8-year-old sister Dawn. Although a loving father, Stanley is unable to conform to a more affectionate role and the girls miss their mother deeply.

While tolerating his job and stumbling through parenting he is abruptly awakened when tragedy strikes. Ill prepared to deal with it himself, he is at a complete loss contemplating how to tell his children. Desperate to delay telling the children they embark on a spontaneous road trip. Grasping to give them their last moments of innocence, Stanley reveals a softer side as they travel to Dawn's chosen destination - Enchanted Gardens Theme Park.

The farther they drive the closer they become yet Stanley knows he must face the inevitable task of changing their lives forever.

Please join us for a provocative Q&A session immediately following the film.

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