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This Week
  • The Forgotten Front, Caroline Wadhams and Lawrence Korb
  • Global Warming and Security, John Podesta and Peter Ogden
  • Fulfilling Rabin's Vision, Middle East Progress
  • Iraq Neighbors Summit Strategies, Brian Katulis
  • Deadly Dance on Chemical Security, P.J. Crowley
  • Pakistan: Nexus of Failure, Joseph Cirincione
  • Eastern Chad, Omer Ismail and John Prendergast
Expert Commentary
  • The Threat of Pakistan's Instability, Joseph Cirincione
  • DHS and Chemical Security, P.J. Crowley
  • U.S. Options in Pakistan, P.J. Crowley

This Week

Caroline Wadhams and Lawrence Korb, "The Forgotten Front," CAP Report, November 6, 2007
Six years after the United States led an invasion of Afghanistan to remove the Taliban from power and destroy Al Qaeda’s safe haven, Afghanistan faces a growing insurgency that directly threatens its stability and the national security interests of the United States and its allies.

The United States and the international community initially made great strides to oust the Taliban and Al Qaeda and stand up the Afghan government following the invasion in October 2001, but the situation has dramatically deteriorated since 2005. The Taliban and Al Qaeda have regrouped in the borderlands of Pakistan and Afghanistan and are supporting the Afghan insurgency while strengthening their own capabilities. Although the current administration has portrayed Iraq as the central front of the “global war on terror,” Afghanistan and the borderlands of Pakistan remain the central battlefield.

Click here to read the full report.

John Podesta and Peter Ogden, "Global Warming: The Security Challenges of Climate Change," CAP Analysis, November 5, 2007
During the course of the past year, a high-level working group of foreign policy experts, climate scientists, historians, and other specialists has met regularly to investigate the national security and foreign policy implications of climate change. Many of the key findings of this task force, which was directed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Center for a New American Security, are presented in a new report entitled “The Age of Consequences.”

“The Age of Consequences” is organized around three possible climate change scenarios that were developed by Pew Center Senior Climate Scientist Dr. Jay Gulledge in consultation with other leading experts in the field. Our chapter, presented here in its complete, unabridged form, analyzes the foreign policy and national security implications of the most moderate of these scenarios over a 30-year timeframe. We identify the critical challenges created or exacerbated by climate change that the United States and the international community will confront.

Click here to read the full chapter.
Click here to read the full report.

"Fulfilling Rabin's Vision,"A Special Edition of the Middle East Bulletin, Middle East Progress, November 5, 2007
Middle East Bulletin put out a special edition this week to mark the anniversary of the assassination of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and to commemorate his life and legacy.  The edition features a reflection by President William Jefferson Clinton, exclusively written for the Middle East Bulletin.  The edition also features an original analysis by Nabil Al-Khatib, executive editor of Al Arabiya; a commentary by Noa Rotman, granddaughter of PM Rabin, adapted expressly for the Bulletin; and an English translation of Yuval Rabin's speech given at the Rabin Square rally on Saturday, November 3, 2007.

Click here to read the special edition of Middle East Bulletin.
Click here to read  this week's Middle East Bulletin.

Brian Katulis, "Iraq Summit Strategies: Ministerial Meeting in Istanbul Requires Tangible Outcomes," CAP Article, November 2, 2007
The ministerial summit of Iraq’s neighbors in Istanbul this weekend comes at a crucial moment. Political and security tensions remain high across Iraq’s borders. A string of attacks by Kurdish rebels prompted Turkey’s parliament to approve cross-border military operations against the Kurdistan Workers Party, or PKK, a Kurdish guerrilla group hiding out in northern Iraq. Iraqi refugees continue to flow steadily out of the country, with Syria imposing restrictions on refugees last month that could send some Iraqis back home. And Washington and Tehran continue to argue acrimoniously about the role of Iran in Iraq’s internal conflicts.

Click here to read the full article.

P.J. Crowley, "A Deadly Dance on Chemical Security Regulation." CAP Article, November 6, 2007
Chemical security is arguably the most significant homeland security vulnerability confronting the United States today. Deadly chemicals, particularly gases such as chlorine, ammonia, and sulfur dioxide, represent one of the very few genuine terrorist nightmare scenarios that threaten hundreds of thousands of people.

The risk associated with hazardous chemicals is real, not imagined. Insurgents in Iraq have attempted on several occasions to convert chlorine gas tanker trucks into improvised explosive devices. Because of this, Congress passed needed, if less than perfect, legislation in September 2006 that granted DHS the authority to regulate high-risk chemical facilities.

Click here to read the full article.

Joseph Cirincione, "Pakistan: Nexus of Failure," The Globalist, November 6, 2007
As many have argued for years, Pakistan is the world's most dangerous nation.  This is not a criticism of President of Pakistan Perez Musharraf's policy towards the United States or his neighbors, but an evaluation of the precarious state of his regime.

Pakistan has enough material for over sixty nuclear weapons, an unstable government, strong Islamic fundamentalist influences in its military and intelligence services, and armed Islamic fundamentalist groups operating on its territory -- including Osama bin Laden.

Click here to read the full article.

Omer Ismail and John Prendergast, "A Race Against Time in Eastern Chad," ENOUGH Report,  November 7, 2007
For many who follow the crisis in Darfur, Chad is simply the neighboring country where hundreds of thousands have sought refuge from the rampages of armed militia backed by the Sudanese government. But today, Chad is engulfed in its own crisis, one that draws on internal contradictions but is fueled and inflamed by the conflict in Darfur. And it is one that is poised to claim tens of thousands of innocent men, women, and children as its victims.

Time is not on the side of civilians in eastern Chad, whether they are among the 180,000 internally displaced Chadians, the 231,000 Sudanese refugees, or the longstanding residents of villages vulnerable to the swirling winds of violence in the region. Having just returned from a visit to the Chad/Sudan border, ENOUGH strongly believes there is a real risk of an escalation of violence and attacks on civilians in the coming weeks. It is thus urgent to speed up the deployment of the European Union protection force and mount a robust diplomatic campaign that addresses the multiple layers of conflict fueling the violence.

Click here to read the full report.

Expert Commentary

Associated Press -  Joseph Cirincione argues there are few good American policy options in Pakistan, stating that Pakistan is the world's most dangerous country — an unstable place of strong Islamic fundamentalist influences and a nuclear arsenal. "If the government falls, if the Army splits, who gets the weapons? "Who gets the material for the weapons? Who gets the scientists who know how to build the weapons? Pakistan could go overnight from a major non-NATO ally to our worst nuclear nightmare."

Washington Post -
P.J. Crowley responds to the Department of Homeland Security's decision to ease rules requiring tens of thousands of U.S. chemical plants to protect their stockpiles from terrorists.   Crowley stated that  security standards should be higher than safety standards, "since the risk associated with a deliberate terrorist attack is more severe than the potential for an accidental release."

Associated Press - P.J. Crowley examines U.S. options, in light of recent events in Pakistan.  Crowley warned against "an impulse on Capitol Hill to cut back the aid. I think that would be a mistake. If we are going to maintain the leverage we have with Pakistan, the aid can be useful."


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Event Resources

War/Dance
November 8, 2007, 7:00pm9:30pm

ENOUGH, Think Films, Shine Global, and the Center for American Progress are pleased to present War/Dance. Set in Northern Uganda, a country ravaged by more than two decades of civil war, War/Dance tells the story of Dominic, Rose, and Nancy, three children whose families have been torn apart, their homes destroyed, and who currently reside in a displaced persons camp in Patongo. When they are invited to compete in an annual music and dance festival, their historic journey to their nation's capital is also an opportunity to regain a part of their childhood and to taste victory for the first time in their lives.

Please join us for a provocative panel discussion and Q&A session immediately following the film.

Featured Panelists:
Andrea Nix Fine, Director, War/Dance
Sean Fine, Director, War/Dance
Michael Poffenberger, Executive Director, Resolve Uganda

John Prendergast, Co-Founder, The ENOUGH Project

Moderated by:
Gayle Smith, Co-Founder, The ENOUGH Project

Click here for more information.

The Forgotten Front: A New Strategy for Afghanistan

Six years after the United States led an invasion of Afghanistan to remove the Taliban from power and destroy Al Qaeda's safe haven, Afghanistan faces a growing insurgency that directly threatens its stability and the national security interests of the United States and its allies. The United States, in coordination with the Afghan government and the international community must change its current approach toward Afghanistan.

The Center for American Progress will release a new counterinsurgency strategy for Afghanistan, outlining a set of recommendations for strengthening the Afghan government, increasing security, accelerating reconstruction, combating the narcotics trade, and removing the terrorist safe haven in Pakistan. The panelists will discuss the new Center report, as well as offer their valuable insights on U.S. policy toward Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Featured Panelists:
James F. Dobbins, Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, RAND Corporation
Lawrence J. Korb, Senior Vice President for National Security and International Policy, Center for American Progress
J. Alexander Thier, Senior Rule of Law Advisor, Rule of Law Program, United States Institute for Peace

Moderated by:
Caroline P. Wadhams, Senior Policy Analyst, Center for American Progress

Click here for more information.

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