Memo to Reporters: Public Opinion

From: Ruy Teixeira
January 15, 2004

President Bush is preparing his State of the Union address to tout his accomplishments in a number of areas, as well as offer some new initiatives. He will, of course, put the best possible spin on these accomplishments and insist Americans are happy with those accomplishments and want to continue moving in the direction he has taken the country.

But there’s another side to the public opinion story here. In reality, Bush faces a public skeptical in important ways of what he has done and where he proposes to go. Here’s an issue-by-issue guide to this skepticism in key areas likely to be addressed by the president (polling data cited are the most recent available for a particular question).

Iraq

• Twice as many Americans (31 percent to 15 percent) believe the capture of Saddam will increase the threat of terrorism against the US than believe it will decrease that threat (CBS News/New York Times poll, December 21-22, 2003)
• More Americans (25 percent to 20 percent) believe the capture of Saddam will increase attacks on US troops in Iraq than believe the capture will decrease these attacks (CBS News/New York Times poll, December 21-22, 2003)
• Most Americans (53 percent to 43 percent) say we are not safer and more secure now that Saddam has been captured (Newsweek poll, January 8-9, 2004)
• More Americans (47 percent to 42 percent) believe the result of the war with Iraq was not worth the loss of American life and other costs of attacking Iraq than believe it was (CBS News/New York Times poll, December 21-22, 2003)
• Americans overwhelmingly (70 percent) disagree with the statement that “the threat of terrorism has been significantly reduced by the [Iraq] war.” (Program on International Policy Attitudes poll, November 21-30, 2003)
• By a wide margin (61 percent to 24 percent), Americans say that U.S. priorities should be to focus on finding Osama bin Laden and other Al Qaeda members, rather than focus on dealing with Saddam and Iraq (CBS News/New York Times poll, December 21-22, 2003)
• Americans strongly believe (60 percent to 37 percent) that, given the goals versus the costs of the war, the number of US military casualties so far has been unacceptable (ABC News/Washington Post poll, December 18-20, 2003)

The Economy and Taxes

• The public overwhelmingly (81 percent) says that most Americans are not better off financially than they were in 2001. This includes 40 percent who say most Americans are not as well off and 41 percent who say they are in the same shape. Just 17 percent say most Americans are better off (ABC News/Washington Post poll, December 18-20, 2003)
• By 3:1 (54 percent to 18 percent), Americans say the country is financially worse off, rather than better off, than when Bush took office (Los Angeles Times poll, November 15-18, 2003)
• Over three-quarters of Americans (77 percent) say they personally are either not as well off (27 percent) or in about the same shape (50 percent) as when Bush took office. Only 22 percent say they are better off (Los Angeles Times poll, November 15-18, 2003)
• Most Americans (55 percent) think Bush is not spending enough time dealing with economic problems, compared to 42 percent who think he is (ABC News/Washington Post poll, December 18-20, 2003)
• Most Americans (68 percent) believe that Bush’s overall economic policies in the last three years have either made the economy weaker (43 percent) or had no effect (25 percent). Just 24 percent believe his policies have made the economy stronger (Los Angeles Times poll, November 15-18, 2003)
• Most Americans (55 percent) think the Bush tax cuts have either had no effect on the economy (35 percent) or mostly hurt the economy (20 percent). This compares to 41 percent who say the tax cuts have mostly helped (ABC News/Washington Post poll, December 18-20, 2003)
• Most Americans believe (58 percent to 34 percent) that spending on improving roads, bridges and schools, rather than returning money to taxpayers through tax cuts, would be the most effective way to stimulate the nation’s economy (Los Angeles Times poll, November 15-18, 2003)
• Bush has net negative approval ratings on both the economy and taxes: 46 percent approval/48 percent disapproval on the economy and 45 percent approval/47 percent disapproval on taxes (Newsweek poll, January 8-9, 2004)

Health Care

• Strong pluralities of both seniors (47 percent to 26 percent) and those 55-64 (46 percent to 32 percent) disapprove of the Medicare changes voted by Congress (ABC News/Washington Post poll, December 3-7, 2003)
• Seniors just barely say (46 percent to 39 percent) that they favor the new prescription drug benefit for Medicare recipients–unusually low for a group that’s just received a new benefit (Gallup poll, December 5-7, 2003)
• Seniors overwhelmingly (85 percent) say that they are very (56 percent) or somewhat (29 percent) concerned that the Medicare changes won’t go far enough in helping seniors pay for their prescriptions (Gallup poll, December 5-7, 2003)
• A lop-sided majority of seniors (78 percent) also say they are very (58 percent) or somewhat (20 percent) concerned that these changes “benefit prescription drug companies too much” (Gallup poll, December 5-7, 2003)
• By more than 2:1 (59 percent to 28 percent), seniors think the new Medicare plan will do more to benefit prescription drug companies than Medicare recipients (Gallup poll, December 5-7, 2003)
• Despite the passage of the Medicare prescription drugs bill, Americans give Bush just a 37 percent approval rating on handling health care issues, with 50 percent disapproval. This is essentially unchanged since November, before the bill was passed (Newsweek poll, January 8-9, 2004)
• Americans give Bush the same low 37 percent approval rating on handling Medicare, with 47 percent disapproval. Here, too, his rating is essentially unchanged since before the bill was passed (Newsweek poll, January 8-9, 2004)
• By a wide margin (59 percent to 39 percent), Americans believe it is the responsibility of the federal government to make sure all Americans have health coverage (Gallup poll, November 3-5, 2003)
• Bush’s job rating on “the cost, availability and coverage of health insurance” is a truly abysmal 28 percent approval/63 percent disapproval (ABC News/Washington Post poll, October 26-29, 2003)

Education

• Two-thirds of Americans (67 percent) think the Bush administration’s policies have either made the nation’s schools worse (26 percent) or had no effect (41 percent). Just 23 percent believe these policies have improved the schools (CBS News/New York Times poll, September 28-October 1, 2003)
• The public overwhelmingly (84 percent to 14 percent) believes that the best way to judge a school’s performance is to see whether students show reasonable improvement from where they started, rather than whether they meet a fixed standard, as specified in the NCLB Act (Gallup/Phi Delta Kappa poll, May 28-June 18, 2003)
• By more than 2:1 (66 percent to 32 percent) the public does not think a single test, as in the NCLB Act, can provide a fair picture of whether or not a public school need improvement (Gallup/Phi Delta Kappa poll, May 28-June 18, 2003)
• The public also strongly believes (72 percent to 26 percent) that a single test cannot accurately judge a student’s proficiency in English and math (Gallup/Phi Delta Kappa poll, May 28-June 18, 2003)
• By a substantial 66 percent to 30 percent margin, the public believes that the current emphasis on standardized tests will lead teachers to “teach to the test”, rather than teaching their subjects (Gallup/Phi Delta Kappa poll, May 28-June 18, 2003)
• Americans strongly believe that teacher salaries are too low (59 percent) and that teachers should be paid higher salaries as an incentive to teach in schools that are identified to be in need of improvement (65 percent) (Gallup/Phi Delta Kappa poll, May 28-June 18, 2003)
• By almost a 50 point margin (73 percent to 25 percent), the public says we should focus on reforming the existing public school system, rather than trying to find an alternative to that system (Gallup/Phi Delta Kappa poll, May 28-June 18, 2003)
• The public strongly opposes (60 percent to 38 percent) allowing students and parents to choose a private school to attend at public expense (Gallup/Phi Delta Kappa poll, May 28-June 18, 2003)