Afghanistan: Urgent and Unresolved

In Afghanistan – the original battleground against al Qaeda – the coming year will help answer critical questions about the nation’s long-term stability and political future. This month’s adoption of a new constitution was an encouraging step, as are recent signs of an expanded role for NATO allies.

Afghanistan’s leaders and people face enormous challenges, however, as they attempt to rebuild their nation. Most ominous of all is the lack of physical security in vast parts of the country, where warlords and their militias have seized and are exercising power. The Afghanistan-Pakistan border remains both dangerous and porous - a likely hiding place for al Qaeda operatives. Outside Kabul, reconstruction efforts have been slow and fragmented, in large part due to instability. And there are warnings from the U.N. and others that security concerns could delay planned elections. As CNN concluded in a January 2004 special report, "Two years ago President Bush vowed that Afghanistan would never again become a haven for terrorism. He promised to rebuild this country into a free and safe democracy. But those hopes and dreams may be in jeopardy as violence is increasing and the Taliban are regrouping."

The U.S. focus on Iraq has severely limited our ability to meet challenges in Afghanistan, where the United States has stationed around 10,000 troops to cover a country with 647,500 sq km of territory and over 28 million people, compared to some 130,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. It is clear that the United States must move quickly and decisively – not only for the sake of meeting our responsibilities in Afghanistan, but also because we cannot allow al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations to regain their footing.

With this in mind, the Center for American Progress asked two leading scholars to offer their perspectives on what lies ahead for Afghanistan – and the challenges for Afghans, the United States and the international community.

Larry Goodson, professor of Middle East studies at the U.S. Army War College and author of Afghanistan’s Endless War, argues that in 2004 the United States must commit another division of U.S. troops to help stability and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. "Neither the planned expansion of NATO-led ISAF forces outside of Kabul, nor the Afghan National Army (ANA) provide a solution to the growing lawlessness and insurgency in Afghanistan," he writes. Goodson says that recent adjustments to U.S. strategy in Afghanistan are promising, but that we must give further consideration to our priorities and methods. For more, read Goodson’s "U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan."

Amit Pandya, a lawyer and ethnographer who has served as director of humanitarian assistance at the U.S. Department of Defense, argues that the security situation has been aggravated primarily by the political impact of U.S. military operations in Afghanistan and the growing presence and power of warlord militias. He believes that the type of government approved in Afghanistan’s new constitution may not be suitable to the security realities in the country, and reminds us that "rampant violence and lawlessness, extreme poverty, and poor governance enabled the emergence of the Taliban" a decade ago. For more, read Pandya’s "Security, Reconstruction and Political Normalization in Afghanistan – Falling Short."