The Road to Zero

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Through May 2005 (52 months into the Bush Presidency) private sector jobs are down 24,000. This morning's May jobs report showed that the economy once again failed to produce its first net private sector job under Bush.

Since Great Depression no other president who served at least 52 months has overseen a net loss in private sector jobs through this point.

• On average, private employment grew at a 9.8 percent rate through 52 months of each presidency since the 1930s. Had private sector jobs grown at that rate during Bush's first 52 months in office employment would have been up 10.9 million, instead of down 24,000.

Only in May 2005 (42 months after the end of the last recession) did the private sector recover the jobs lost during the last recession-the longest period since the 1930s.

• 42 months is more than three times longer than the average time-12.7 months-- needed during the typical recovery since the 1930s.

The Bush recovery is 8.6 million private sector jobs behind where it would be had the rate of job growth been the same as in a typical recovery dating back to the 1950s.

• Private sector employment has grown at about 1.9 percent-about one sixth the average rate of 11.3 percent we saw through the 42 months following each recession since the 1930s and less than less than on fifth the average rate of growth following each recession dating back to the 1950s (9.8 percent).
  
• Even if private sector jobs has grown at the average rate following those recessions from the 1950s on, excluding the exceptionally strong recoveries from the two recessions following World War II, there would be an additional 8.6 million jobs today

Real weekly and hourly wages have actually declined since the end of the recession.

• Real average hourly earnings declined to $16.00 in April 2005-below their $16.07 mark at the end of the recession in November 2001. Real average weekly wages declined from $543.14 at the end of recession to $542.40 in April 2005 (wage statistics are adjusted to April 2005 dollars using CPI-W).

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For more information:
• Statement of Scott Lilly On the May Employment Situation
• President Bush’s Job Deficits