While the Bush administration is bragging about how much its economic policies have done for average Americans, the economic data continue to raise questions about the well-being of working families. Job growth has slowed markedly and wage growth has been negative for a number of months, while business investment and profits appear to be slowing too. Experts from a variety of backgrounds are beginning to wonder aloud about the strength of the Bush recovery, particularly because of the likely effect of high levels of consumer debt on consumption.

• The economic recovery is slower than expected, leading many to believe the recovery isn't as strong as once hoped. Although business investment picked up earlier in the year (after being dormant for much of the recovery), it has fallen back over the last quarter. According to government statistics, retail sales and auto purchases declined in June. Technology companies have recently warned of weak software and hardware spending. On top of all of this, the Labor Department reported an unexpected slowdown in job creation and small increase in wages.
• The weakening recovery is especially apparent in the job market. The number of workers who are unemployed or underemployed remains very high for this point in a recovery. The duration of unemployment for those looking for work still hovers close to a two-decade high of 20 weeks. Even worse, those who are finding jobs are often finding them in lower-wage industries. Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley has recently pointed out that the increase in hiring has mostly happened at the low-end of the job spectrum. A study by Economy.com supports this: of the 1.3 million jobs created since August, it finds that nearly two-thirds are in low-wage industries.
• Economists of all stripes are worried about the strength of the recovery. Andrew Tilton, an economist at Goldman Sachs, believes that, "economic data over the next several weeks are likely to follow the theme of slower growth," and adds that consumer spending is also likely to be weak. Ethan Harris of Lehman Brothers is worried too: "At every client meeting I have, I'm asked whether a slowdown has hit the U.S. economy." Mark Zandi of economy.com agrees, writing "the economy has yet to fully recuperate from the recession."

Daily Talking Points is a product of the Center for American Progress, a non-partisan research and educational institute committed to progressive principles for a strong, just and free America.