'The President is Not a Statistician'

In what could be the understatement of the year, White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan disavowed the administration’s economic plan for the second time in less than one week, backtracking on its projection of 2.6 million new jobs for 2004 after sidestepping claims that sending jobs overseas is good for the nation. But it doesn’t take a background in econometrics to recognize the president’s massive, supply-side tax cuts for the rich have done almost nothing for struggling middle class families looking for good work and solid pay. The president promised substantial employment growth from his three rounds of tax cuts yet has delivered only net job losses – 2.3 million jobs have been lost since President Bush took office in 2001, the worst employment record since the Great Depression.

• The Bush administration has consistently misled the public with overly optimistic job growth projections that don’t hold up to basic scrutiny. As the Economic Policy Institute and Center on Budget and Policy Priorities report, the White House last year projected average employment would increase by 1.7 million new jobs above 2002 levels, when in reality it declined by 400,000 jobs. The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) now estimates 5.6 million fewer jobs for 2004 than was projected in its 2002 report. And yesterday the chairman of the CEA, N. Gregory Mankiw, refused to endorse any employment figure simply stating, "We expect a robust job market in 2004."
• The economy would have to generate 450,000 jobs per month in order to meet the president's misleading job promises – four times higher than the average rate in January 2004. The president doesn’t want to muck up the rosy economic picture he’s painting in an election year, and has quietly told his own Treasury and Commerce secretaries to back off the administration’s phony job numbers. But the evidence speaks louder than any White House spin – the president’s economic plans simply don’t work.
• Massive tax cuts for the rich have failed to create adequate job opportunities or address the needs of struggling families trying to deal with rising costs and debt. The White House’s refusal to endorse its own economic projections sends a strong signal to working families – if the administration can't stand by its own economic numbers, why should the American public believe its larger claim that tax cuts create jobs and relieve economic burdens?

Daily Talking Points is a product of the Center for American Progress, a non-partisan research and educational institute committed to progressive principles for a strong, just and free America.